Seattle hosts a co-host with history in its sights: the USA chasing a first quarter-final in 24 years, installed as small favourites at -120. The pre-match boost was huge — Folarin Balogun's suspension was OVERTURNED, returning a striker with three goals this World Cup to link with Christian Pulisic, Malik Tillman, Weston McKennie and Sergiño Dest. Behind them, Chris Richards, the 2025 USMNT Player of the Year, has anchored Mauricio Pochettino's three-centre-back system to two clean sheets, including a controlled 2-0 win over Bosnia in the round of 32.

Belgium, by contrast, have survived on nerve and quality in flashes: 2-0 down to Senegal in the R32, they scored three late goals to win 3-2, and they nearly went out in a shaky group against Egypt and Iran. Kevin De Bruyne, 35 and past his peak, remains a top-tier playmaker, while Romelu Lukaku has become a super-sub with two goals in two. The caveat: Belgium beat this USA team in a March friendly, roaring back from 0-1. In a tournament where underdogs and comebacks have thrived, this is a true coin-flip — but the home crowd, the Balogun boost and Belgium's fragility tip it to the Stars and Stripes.