At SoFi Stadium the tournament serves up its cleanest tactical contrast: Spain, who have reached the quarter-finals without conceding a single goal — five clean sheets in five — against Belgium's box-office attack, which has plundered 13 goals but shipped 5, thrashing the USA 4-1 in the R16 after edging Senegal 3-2. Spain sit at -155 and roughly 64% on the model, with Oyarzabal joint-top of the scoring charts, and the history is emphatic: Spain have won six of seven meetings, Belgium have never beaten them, and it reads 16 goals to 3.

The panel splits eight-to-two for a Spain win versus a draw into extra time, and that tension is the story. Spain's defensive machine and midfield control should suffocate the game and squeeze out a single decisive moment — hence the popular BTTS-No and Oyarzabal markets. Belgium's danger is real: if De Bruyne finds a pocket or Lukaku arrives as the super-sub to break Spain's clean-sheet streak, the whole complexion changes and this drifts toward penalties. But on balance Spain's control makes the narrow 1-0 the smart call, with Spain advancing either way.