This is the tie of the round: the Iberian derby under the AT&T Stadium roof in Arlington. Spain arrive as the tournament's outstanding side — unbeaten, YET TO CONCEDE a single goal, Group H winners who opened the knockouts by routing Austria 3-0. Lamine Yamal is a menace off the right and Mikel Oyarzabal is joint-top scorer with four goals. Portugal took the scenic route: two draws around a 5-0 demolition of Uzbekistan, then a late 2-1 over Croatia sealed by a Cristiano Ronaldo goal — the 41-year-old has three goals off a match-high 4.15 xG and remains their likeliest matchwinner, with Vitinha and João Neves pulling strings and Rúben Dias marshalling the back.

History warns against the low-scoring temptation — Spain-Portugal meetings have been shootouts (the 2018 3-3 classic; last four competitive games averaging 3.3 goals), so Over 2.5 is live even as Oyarzabal-anytime and a tight line stay popular. In a tournament that has punished favourites — Norway just knocked out Brazil, Paraguay dumped Germany on penalties, Morocco went the distance repeatedly — Portugal cannot be dismissed. But Spain's watertight defence and midfield control should carry them through; expect them to find a way, whether inside 90 or beyond.