Nobody wanted this quarter-final, and for good reason. Norway knocked Brazil out 2-1 in the R16 and Erling Haaland tops the Golden Boot charts with 7 goals in 4 games — scoring in every match, the late hero against the Ivory Coast and a brace against Brazil — on the deepest Norwegian run in a generation, with Ødegaard pulling strings alongside him. England, unbeaten in five and coming off a 3-2 win over Mexico, counter with Harry Kane (6 goals, xG 4.19, 10 shots on target) and a squad whose depth and knockout experience the models rate at around 65%.

The complication is the suspension of Jarell Quansah, sent off in the R16, which forces a reshuffled England back line with Reece James a candidate to slot in — precisely the kind of vulnerability Haaland exists to punish. The panel leans England 6-2-2 and expects an open, high-scoring affair, with most tips landing on a 2-1 for the Three Lions. That is the call here: England's greater firepower and composure in the tight moments should just about edge it 2-1, but this is a live coin-flip in which one Haaland moment flips the bracket, so confidence stays deliberately modest.