The 2026 World Cup opens where World Cup history runs deepest: the Estadio Azteca, hosting its record 20th World Cup match. Mexico kick off their third home World Cup against a South Africa side appearing at their first finals since they hosted in 2010 — and there's symmetry in the fixture, because exactly 16 years ago these two met in that tournament's opening game, a 1-1 draw made famous by Siphiwe Tshabalala's thunderbolt. Rafael Marquez, who scored Mexico's equalizer that day, is now El Tri's assistant coach.

Javier Aguirre leads Mexico at a World Cup for the third time, and his side arrive in form: they dismantled Serbia 5-1 in their final warm-up with Raul Jimenez on the scoresheet, and Mexico are unbeaten in their last seven World Cup openers. Add the altitude — the Azteca sits at 2,240 meters, brutal on visiting teams — and a capacity home crowd, and the conditions could hardly tilt further toward the hosts.

South Africa earned this stage the hard way, topping their CAF qualifying group by a single point over Nigeria and Benin, but Bafana Bafana lack tournament-hardened depth and haven't faced an atmosphere like this in a generation. The Opta supercomputer gives Mexico 66% of simulations; the AI lands close to that at 64%, calling a controlled 2-0 home win. The one caveat: opening matches are historically tight and nervy — South Africa's best path is surviving the first half-hour and dragging the Azteca into anxiety.