The Estadio Azteca, altitude, and a ferocious home crowd make this England's designated banana skin — and Mexico have earned the billing. Aguirre's side have arguably been the tournament's best team: three group wins and a fourth consecutive clean sheet in a 2-0 defeat of Ecuador that delivered their first knockout win since 1986. They attack with intent yet remain defensively airtight, and at altitude the Azteca is a genuine leveller against any opponent.

England, under Tuchel, topped Group L and beat Congo DR 2-1 through a Harry Kane brace — Kane has scored in every game — as they chase a first title since 1966. This is two attack-minded, well-organised sides meeting in hostile conditions, and the panel overwhelmingly sees it level after 90. The advances vote splits right down the middle, 5-5, which is honest: it is a coin-flip. The nudge goes to England on squad depth and their edge in a shootout, but Mexico's clean-sheet run and home cauldron make this as close to 50/50 as the round offers. 1-1 after 90, England through on the finest of margins.