Arch-rivals for the first time on this stage in 24 years, and the first time Messi has ever faced England at a World Cup — Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium hosts a semi soaked in history. Argentina are the reigning champions, unbeaten in 12 World Cup matches since their Qatar 2022 opener and scoring 2+ in every one of them. Lionel Messi has been the defining player of the tournament, opening with a hat-trick against Algeria, moving to eight goals and the all-time WC record of 21, with Lautaro, Alvarez, Mac Allister and Enzo orbiting him after the 3-1 quarter-final win over Switzerland.

Tuchel's England answer with a dual spearhead — Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham each on six goals — plus the scars of near-misses in 1990 and 2018 that leave them one step from a second-ever final. Opta makes England marginal favorites at 51.9%, but the market can barely separate the sides and some models lean Argentina. Expect a cagey, low-scoring affair decided by a single moment: a set piece, a Messi flash, a Bellingham surge. Call it 1-1 after 90, extra time and penalties looming, with England shading the shootout by the thinnest of margins — but nobody should be shocked if Messi drags Argentina to the final instead.